2024 Catch Probability Data

This graphic shows catch probabilities from real fly balls at every MLB ballpark, with accurate stadium measurements using a 5-point fence drawing system. It also includes the batter/fielder who hit/caught the specific fly ball, exit velocity, launch angle, and distance traveled:

(For clarity, this model represents 50% of all fly balls hit during the 2024 MLB season. Data is gathered from Statcast and Baseball Savant. Also, fly balls with a 90-100% chance of being caught are excluded for the purpose of clearing up space)

Here is a graphic that allows you to take any one of MLB’s top 50 rostered outfielders in 2024 and simulate a fly ball, calculating their catch probability using the same method as MLB’s Statcast:

Select Outfielder:

Sprint Speed

27.3 ft/s

Catch Probability

--%

Distance to Ball

Click any dot on the field to simulate a fly ball.

This model represents one of MLB’s statcast methods of using sprint speed to determine the chances of a fly ball being caught depending on who is playing the outfield, before the ball is even hit.